コーヒーショップの市場シェア、トレンド、セグメンテーション、2035年までの予測

Coffee Shop Market Share, Trends, Segmentation and Forecasts to 2035

The global coffee shop market is on a strong growth trajectory, with sales forecast to increase from USD 188.5 billion in 2025 to USD 271.1 billion in 2035 , reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% over the forecast period . This growth is driven by rising global coffee consumption, an expanding selection of premium beverage options, and the growing importance of experiential retail in urban and suburban markets.

Japan's coffee shop market is growing steadily at a CAGR of 3.4% , fueled by a unique blend of craftsmanship and everyday convenience . Specialty cafes showcase meticulous brewing techniques in a relaxed, compact space, offering coffee lovers a luxurious weekend getaway.

Meanwhile, convenience stores, or konbini convenience stores, offer affordable and reliable coffee that caters to busy weekday commuters. Excellent operations—clean stores, courteous staff, and seamless digital tools like contactless payment and loyalty QR codes—continue to strengthen customer loyalty while upholding the Japanese spirit of omotenashi (hospitality).

Market Drivers: From Changing Lifestyles to Experiential Coffee Culture

The coffee shop industry is no longer just about caffeine; it is evolving into a lifestyle experience. Urbanization, busy work, and the global rise of "third place" culture, where coffee shops serve as hubs for socializing and working, continue to drive coffee demand. Younger generations, particularly millennials and Gen Z, are at the forefront of this trend, seeking both artisanal coffee and digital connectivity in the modern cafe space.

Healthier options are also a major driver of growth, with consumers increasingly seeking plant-based milk alternatives, protein-fortified beverages, and low-sugar and functional drinks. In response to these shifts, major coffee shop brands are expanding beyond traditional coffee offerings into cold brew, refreshing drinks, and health-conscious options.

Digital transformation is transforming operations and customer engagement. Mobile ordering apps, AI-powered personalization, and loyalty programs are becoming mainstream. Technology is not only streamlining service, it's also creating new ways for brands to build deeper connections with their customers.

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Competitive landscape: Incumbent giants and disruptive entrants

The competitive coffee shop landscape is one of global chains driving innovation, while specialty shops offer a unique local flavor and authenticity. Larger players are expanding their international presence, while smaller brands are differentiating themselves through their craftsmanship and artisanal approach.

The main coffee shops featured in the market are:

• Starbucks Corporation
• Dunkin' (Inspired Brands)
• Costa Coffee (Coca-Cola Company)
• Tim Hortons (Restaurant Brands International)
• Luckin Coffee
• McCafe (McDonald's)
• Ready to eat
• Peet's Coffee (JDE Peet's)
• Blue Bottle Coffee
• Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf
• others

Starbucks Corporation continues to dominate the market with its global expansion, aggressive digitalization, and consistent menu innovation. Its ability to balance efficiency with a customer-centric strategy further strengthens its leadership position.

Dunkin' (Inspire Brands) uses playful, seasonal offerings to drive brand engagement and establish a strong identity. By appealing to nostalgia and affordability, Dunkin' has positioned itself as a mass-market, yet experiential, coffee chain.

Backed by The Coca-Cola Company , Costa Coffee is expanding its reach by leveraging The Coca-Cola Company's vast distribution network and marketing resources, particularly in Europe and Asia.

While Tim Hortons remains a household name in Canada, it is rapidly expanding into international markets with localized menus, further enhancing its appeal by positioning itself as an accessible, locally based brand.

China-based Luckin Coffee is emerging as a technology-driven disruptive innovator by combining aggressive pricing strategies with app-based convenience to tap into growing demand in Asia.

Meanwhile, premium niche brands such as Blue Bottle Coffee , Pret A Manger , and The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf are building strong consumer loyalty by focusing on artisanal quality, sustainable sourcing, and unique in-store experiences.

Recent Trends: Innovation Drives Market Dynamics

The past year has seen significant innovation and investment among key players.

• Starbucks Corporation : In 2025, Starbucks introduced an AI-powered inventory management system to more than 11,000 stores in the United States to improve inventory accuracy and operational efficiency . Starbucks also announced plans to renovate or convert up to 90 mobile-order-only stores into full-service cafes with seating by 2026 as part of its Coffeehouse Uplift program. This program involves an investment of approximately US$150,000 per store. In September 2025, in response to growing health consciousness, the company introduced Protein Cold Foam and Protein Latte, each containing up to 36 grams of protein .
• Dunkin' Donuts (Inspired Brands) : In 2025, Dunkin' Donuts launched a limited-time Cereal & Milk Latte , blending the nostalgic flavor of cereal milk with espresso . Additionally, the brand revamped its fall menu, adding its iconic Pumpkin Spice lineup , a $6 Meal Deal , and new Daydream Refresher flavors, including Mango . By prioritizing seasonal, fun, and addictive drinks, Dunkin' Donuts reinforces its identity as a brand thriving on playful engagement and affordable indulgence.

These developments highlight how the industry is balancing modernizing operations with menu creativity to stay ahead of evolving consumer demands.

Outlook: A steady path to 2035

Looking ahead, the coffee shop market is expected to experience sustained growth, fueled by rising global consumption and the cultural convergence of the coffee house experience. Rising disposable incomes and the development of urban lifestyles provide fertile ground for both international chains and local competitors, making expansion into emerging markets, particularly in Asia Pacific and Latin America, crucial.

Brands that invest in digital transformation, sustainable sourcing, and menu innovation are expected to remain competitive. As demand for plant-based options, high-protein drinks, and experiential services grows, the industry will continue to evolve from a simple coffee-serving model to a diverse, consumer-centric ecosystem.

Projected to reach a valuation of US$271.1 billion by 2035 , the global coffee shop market reflects not only the resilience of coffee culture but also its ability to reinvent itself to meet changing consumer expectations.